Euroconsult projects NGSO to be 90% of capacity in 2026
Euroconsult predicts that non-geostationary orbit (NGSO) satellites will account for 90% of in-orbit capacity by 2026, a complete reversal of the situation from the end of 2020. The global supply of high-throughput satellite (HTS) capacity is expected to multiply by more than six between 2021 and 2026, exceeding 60,000 Gbit/s of capacity, according to the “High Throughput Satellites” report recently published by Euroconsult.
For consumer broadband, Euroconsult consultant Brent Prokosh said By satellite the increase in capacity could cause price shocks throughout the broadband market.
“What you get in terms of data speeds for the dollars spent, it improves dramatically, and that’s a shock to the market.” This is a shock to the satellite market for legacy players who have older satellite infrastructure, but we expect it to shock rural terrestrial infrastructure in some locations, especially in the US and Canada .
Prokosh sees the top three growth opportunities for satellite as being broadband, whether it’s a backhaul consumer; maritime in terms of merchant shipping and cruises; and in-flight connectivity.
However, not all of this new in-orbit capacity can be used due to landing rights clearances and gateway deployment, Euroconsult reports. The company expects extremely low NGSO fill rates for years to come as the surge in demand does not keep pace with the growth in supply.
“We have very low fill rates on NGSO demand just because of the supply explosion, so it’s lagging behind. We’re seeing much higher fill rates in geostationary VHTS (very high broadband) because they have 15 years to fill them.